WA3 - Quantifying global change scenarios

In work area 3, hazard and risk patterns will be predicted over a period of perhaps as much as 100 years. The work packages will quantify the impact of global environmental change (climate, forest vegetation, land use etc.) and human activities on exposed slopes. Several landslide types will be considered.

Climate change scenarios and the evaluation of landslide hazard and risk will be prepared for selected regions in Europe. In a similar way, scenarios of future human activity and demography based on expected and projected prognoses, will be prepared and the evolution of landslide risk in selected "hotspots" areas in Europe quantified. Most importantly, the procedures developed in SafeLand to carry out scenario studies of climate change and human activity can be applied long after SafeLand has been completed.

Particular attention will be given to the uncertainties in the analysis of impacts of risk evolution due to global change to assist in the selection of mitigation measures and the implementation of the risk management strategy.